Apollo's economist says AI has paid off nothing outside tech

Torsten Slok, chief economist at the private equity firm Apollo, published a note arguing that AI has delivered what he calls zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech. His evidence is the "S&P 493," meaning the S&P 500 with Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla removed. Across those companies he finds profit margins and revenue per worker flat, with no sign that AI is lifting productivity. The piece is light on hard percentages, but the shape of the claim is clear: the spending is real and the return, so far, is not showing up in the numbers.

Slok does not think this is simply a lag, with non-tech firms destined to catch up to the giants. He argues it will be genuinely hard to convert cheaper intelligence into higher revenue and margins, because business success rests on judgment rather than raw calculation, and models do not grasp accountability, trust, culture, or unwritten norms. As TechCrunch notes, the argument lands alongside other recent studies finding little productivity gain, though it is worth reading with the usual care, since the piece also mentions that Apollo once owned TechCrunch.

Why it matters

If you are signing off on large AI budgets, this is a counterweight to the vendor pitch: the gains have not yet reached the income statement outside tech, so it is reasonable to ask your own teams for measured results on specific workflows before committing to the next round of spend.