Mismatched trade data points to AI servers smuggled into China

Epoch AI compared the customs records that China and Malaysia each filed for the same server trade and found they do not match. From April 2024 through June 2025, China recorded $3.8 billion in server imports from Malaysia, while Malaysia reported only $0.6 billion in exports to China. The price per unit is where it gets stranger: China logged an average of about $106,000 per server, Malaysia about $17,000. Epoch reads the gap as consistent with roughly 150,000 H100-equivalent GPUs moving in a way one side did not want recorded.

The method is called mirror trade statistics: line up the two countries' own numbers for the same goods and look for discrepancies. Epoch checked nine AI-hardware commodity codes, accounted for flows through Singapore and Hong Kong, and compared prices against other countries buying Malaysian servers. The timing lines up with policy. The flow started after the United States tightened export controls on advanced chips in October 2023, and it collapsed after Malaysia began requiring permits for the transshipment of high-performance AI chips in July 2025.

Epoch is careful to say the data is consistent with smuggling, not proof of it, after ruling out rerouting, misclassification, and coincidence. The analysis shows the monthly series where the divergence opens and then closes.

Why it matters

If you track export controls or the compute behind Chinese AI labs, this puts a rough number on how much restricted hardware may have slipped through one route, and shows the leak narrowing once Malaysia added permits. It is also a reminder that this trade becomes visible through customs mismatches rather than leaks or raids.